The poor man of Nato? UK second to last in alliance league table, defence expert warns
The UK is looking like the poor man of Nato – even before the Defence Investment Plan is published – defence expert Ed Arnold has warned.
Mr Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the alliance had drawn up an internal document looking at how far each member state is meeting its rearmament promises.
And according to Mr Arnold, the UK is number 31 out of 32.
Above only Iceland
"It's worth noticing that the 32nd member is Iceland, who doesn't have a military and is not really there in terms of the same reason and capability," he said.
"So that's a pretty poor position to be in. So regardless of who is running the MOD and who is in Downing Street, that is a problem that will persist.
"And the only way that you can increase that really is through cash because it's all about fleet availability, it's all about readiness to be out of the door as soon as possible and as soon as needed."
Mr Arnold said the two high-profile resignations of former defence secretary John Healey and former armed forces minister Al Carns would put a spotlight on defence spending.
But he suggested that might not be enough to secure the necessary funding from the Government.
Threat from Russia
This comes at a time when he said the threat to Europe posed by Russia is at its peak between now and 2028.
"The only thing stopping Russia from currently threatening Nato is the fact that it is overcommitted in Ukraine," Mr Arnold pointed out.
"It's actually getting much, much worse for the Russians," he told BFBS Forces News.
"Ukraine fighting in the way that it's fighting... it's started to change and actually hurt the Russians more.
"That, ultimately, is the only thing that is stopping Russia threatening Nato."
Mr Arnold suggested Russian president Vladimir Putin would probably be looking for a political, rather than a military victory.
"My own assessment is that Putin knows he can't defeat Nato militarily," he explained. "Just look at how poor he's been in Ukraine thus far... but he might think that he can defeat Nato politically."
Cash may be lacking, but Europe remains ready to respond
"Exposing Article 5 is hollow," he added. "So a small-scale attack, which then forces the Europeans to respond, and then they don't.
"And then if you effectively dismantle Article 5, then you dismantle the alliance.
"Putin wants to do that. And... you're going to do it on President Trump's watch, because that is the best opportunity you've ever had since Nato was formed.
"So if that is true, you're talking about a limited Russian operation, probably somewhere in the Baltics, say against Kaliningrad. Putin always talks about the Russian people. So that would be a sensible focus point.
"But if it is a limited operation, then I think the Europeans actually can deal with that pretty well, given the capabilities that we already have."
Related topics
Join Our Newsletter
